Auxiliary Decision-making Method of Intra Day Unit Startup and Shutdown Considering Prediction Error

In the intra day dispatch, in order to meet the peak load demand, it is necessary to make a decision in advance whether to open more thermal power units. On the premise of ensuring the economic operation of the power grid, an auxiliary decision-making method for intra day unit startup and shutdown considering the probability distribution of load prediction error is proposed. Based on the historical forecast data and actual operation data, the functional relationship between the expected value of power shortage and the relative error of forecast during the peak hours of daily load is constructed, and a unit decision-making model considering load reduction, unit startup and shutdown, and the lowest comprehensive cost is proposed. The influence of different standard deviations of load forecasting errors on unit startup and shutdown decisions and the change of schedulable load power is analyzed. The results show that the proposed method can provide the most economical decision-making suggestions for unit startup and shutdown in a day when analyzing the startup strategies and schedulable load power adjustment strategies under different standard deviations.