The Application of Monte Carlo Method in System Maturity Assessment

In order to become more competitive and enhance customer satisfaction, ICM Corporation needs to find a good way to measure the maturity and effectiveness of their D&A system. In this paper, we develop models to construct a system maturity assessment model. Firstly, Based on a brief description of the operations and data provided by ICM, we conduct an analysis that results in seven indicators that assess the success of people, technologies, and processes in the D&A system. We choose the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the weights of the indicators. Combining the indicators and their weights, we develop a D&A System Maturity Scale Construction. Secondly, we build an optimization model by setting up a good objective function and constraints and then simulate it using the Monte Carlo method to find the adjustment of each indicator corresponding to the maximum value of the D&A system maturity level. Finally, we analyze the indicators in conjunction with the first question to give a reasonable recommendation strategy. Thirdly, in order to give ICM's protocol to measure the effectiveness of the D&A system, we construct a multiple linear regression to predict the correlation coefficient between the port net profit and the maturity of the D&A system as an indicator of the effectiveness of the D&A system. After the port data is brought into the calculation, we suggest that the ICM should calculate the correlation coefficient regularly. When the correlation coefficient increases regularly, the D&A system will be more effective.