Interval Estimation Method for Uncertainties in Capacity Factors to Calculate the Capacity Credit of Renewable Energy Sources

Toward a low-carbon perspective, renewable energy source (RES) is planned to be the key power supply in many countries. The strong stochasticity of RES demands the power system to hold adequate capacity for balancing power fluctuation. To realize this goal, the capacity credit of RES must be carefully estimated. Current methods cannot effectively account for the temporal variability of RES and lead to over-optimistic estimation. A statistical interval estimation method is proposed to fix this issue. Case studies on several real-world power systems show that the proposed method is more conservative. It contributes to de-risk loss of load, increase the stability of the system, and allows policymakers to consider the degree of RES uncertainty.