Reliability Data Analysis and Lifetime Prediction of Aviation Equipment Based on Logistic Distribution

According to the requirements of modern aviation equipment prognostic and health management (PHM), in order to promote the feasibility and practicability of reliability data analysis, this paper uses Logistic distribution to construct the reliability data analysis and lifetime prediction model of aviation equipment components, and discusses the method of determining the probability distribution type of Logistic distribution. The least square estimation method and maximum likelihood parameter estimation method of Logistic distribution are given, and the characteristics of the above two parameter estimation methods are compared. Finally, the accuracy of the method is verified by an application example in the field of aviation equipment support. We tested 20 identical components of aviation equipment. The least square estimation method and maximum likelihood estimation method are used to process the fault data respectively, and their goodness of fit are compared and analyzed. The results show that the latter has higher estimation accuracy. Therefore, the maximum likelihood estimation method is used to calculate the Logistic distribution characteristics and related reliability parameters.