Multidimensional Disturbance Propagation Model for a Network of Bus Lines

The exploitation and management of a public transportation system (PTS) is usually considered as a complex task, which is even more challenging when various types of disturbances are considered. Although many approaches were suggested to control disturbances, only a few of them addressed the modeling and analysis of their propagation, and the evaluation of their potential impacts on the PTS entities, performance, and behavior. Without such analysis, decision making would be misled and its effectiveness/efficiency hindered. Thus, this paper presents an integrated and multidimensional framework firstly for disturbance propagation. The framework includes a disturbance evaluation model that takes into account bus related data and resilience index and a multistep bus features and residual error prediction models.