Predicting the behaviour of the renal transplant waiting list in the Pais Valencia (Spain) using simulation modeling

A discrete event simulation model has been set up in order to analyze the renal transplant waiting list in the Pais Valencia, one of the autonomous regions in which Spain is divided. The model combines the information of the arrival of the patients onto the list and the process of donations, which also depend on the number of kidneys provided by each donor. Bayesian inference has been used to take into account the uncertainty about the parameters of the input distributions (acceptance, donation and transplantation rates). After validating the model, predictions about the future behaviour of the waiting list have been done. Results indicate a decrease in the size of the waiting list in a short and middle term. Comparison with other strategies of simulation has been done in order to confirm the problem of underestimation of the variance of the expected simulation output.