Reliability of future distribution networks: Handling variability and uncertainty

The goal of this paper is to highlight the importance of developing techniques for characterizing the source and nature of the uncertainty and variability in the performance of the electrical distribution network for the management of the reliability of the future electrical distribution systems. After highlighting the importance of quantitative reliability targets, the paper will present some techniques currently being developed to ensure more accurate characterization of shorter term variation in asset conditions and the impacts of operational processes. These explanations will be complemented by a discussion of new sources of variability & uncertainty that are likely to be present in future electrical distribution networks.