The analysis of simulation trade protection policy in Jiangxi Province based on CGE model

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the environmental and trade effects of tariff changes, we have established 13 agents static CGE model and build the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) in Jiangxi that includes resources, environment and trade, with 5 scenarios of simulation programs solution impact on the economy trade and environment from the tariff rates changes. Model simulation shows that it is beneficial to economic growth and population welfare when the tariff rate increase within 20%, but high tariffs will ultimately reduce the level of economic growth and welfare of the residents, and its negative impact on the import and export of all but short-term beneficial environmental levels. Meanwhile, by introducing an energy tax, we find that an energy tax in addition to short-term negative economic growth, but the effects of welfare, trade and environmental were better than tariffs. So in period of economic recovery, trade protection is not an optimal choice.