Applying Bayes linear methods to support reliability procurement decisions

With the support of the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence (MOD), the Bayes linear method has been used to support reliability decision making on two 'live' projects. This paper focuses on one of these projects and shows how the Bayes linear methodology has been used to support decision making. The construction of a Bayes linear model comprises three parts. First, we need to structure the model. Second, we need to populate the model with our decision maker's beliefs. Finally, we must analyze the model once observed data has become available. This paper will briefly discuss how this has been carried out.