Platform Equation Modeling of Innovation Activity Across the Industrial Technology Life Cycle

An attempt is made to provide a collapsed framework for inventions and innovations through a single platform equation and model. We find that this model is able to correctly describe the production activity for several materials and energy conversion technologies. Activity patterns are shown for several oxides, metals, oil and wind energy and its derivatives which shown significant similarities. The metals Cu, Al, W, Mo and Pb are particularly studied for the amount produced over time. The total activity for the metals encompasses both the invention and innovation stage for a particular metal. Four major stages and two sub stages are identified for the discovery (invention stages) and subsequent growth regimes (innovation stages). Although the metals studied, existed over differing periods (e.g. copper greater than 200 years whereas aluminum, just over 100 years), one single pattern equation appears to capture all the major trends. The use of the pattern model is also attempted for productivity analysis, especially for the condition of radical innovation (i.e. the condition for very rapid growth). For sustained radical innovation, there are various factors which influence growth. These factors have been isolated for the case study of thermal processing of materials. We find that for the common industrial plants where thermal processing and plant size are the dominant variables, their impact on the growth may be examined in the context of the pattern equation. A preliminary analysis of oxide production activity also appears to follow the same innovation model as do energy production trends. The results point to the possible existence of a fertile field for future research in innovation theory.