A collaborative approach to trajectory modeling validation

Air service providers view the growth in future air traffic demand exceeding that of capacity, making it increasingly difficult to maintain yet alone improve the current levels of safety and efficiency. Advanced air traffic management (ATM) and flight deck decision support tool (DST) capabilities are seen as the functional enablers of the future ATM concepts needed to increase capacity by two-threefold. Such automation will provide support in flight data, metering, and conflict prediction/resolution functions to name a few. DST capabilities depend directly on the performance of the underlying trajectory predictor(s) (TP) that provide the anticipated future path of the aircraft. The accuracy of the TP is critical to the success of these DST functions. A common TP validation strategy has been developed for universal application to each element of the TP structure. The TP validation strategy is complemented by a broad database of actual trajectory recordings posted on a Web site and formatted in the extensible markup language (XML). The methodology presented here provides the process for any developer to utilize this database to validate and improve their TP's performance. This paper outlines the TP validation strategy, describes the various types of validation data provided, XML format, and tools developed.